What if Trump Wins?

Decision 2024 is just around the corner, and the American people have two very different visions of the future to choose from. In this two-newsletter series, we will be examining what the economy will likely look like if shaped by President Donald Trump or by President Joe Biden from 2024-2028.

Today, we begin with Former President Donald Trump.

The Track Record

The first three years of Donald Trump’s presidency boasted a roaring economy. Taxes were slashed, making everyday life easier on the middle class, corporate profits were up (in part due to a corporate tax rate cut from 35% to 21%), wages rose, the stock market rose a lot, and GDP grew at a rate of over 3%.

Business was booming, and economic confidence was very high.

Trump was not afraid to use tariffs as a bargaining tool against foreign players such as China and Mexico, and in most cases, that approach paid off. Illegal immigration slowed down, unemployment dropped, and 65% of Americans today call the Trump economy “good.”

Then… there was that pesky fourth year.

During COVID-19, President Trump shut down the economy and then extended the shutdown again.

The numbers, naturally, were excruciating. Because workers were told to stay home, massive stimulus payments were sent out, which sent our already-over-leveraged currency down an inflationary tumble that we are still seeing the effects of today, four years later.

Some argue that the numbers for 2019-2020 were not totally a result of Trump’s policies, because individual states, in many cases, instituted even harsher regulations on economic activity. Others say that as the executive, he is responsible.

What is uncontroversial, however, is that the stats were impressive for the first three years – Larry Kudlow called it “an economic boom most folks thought was impossible.” And that fourth year, wherever you lay the blame, had terrible, terrible numbers.

The Agenda

Nevertheless, it’s a new day, and the Trump campaign has made a series of promises regarding what Donald Trump will do, if elected, for another term. Here are the highlights:…

The price of fast food has skyrocketed in the past few years, as 40% of Americans report cutting back on restaurant spending in general, and many say that fast food just isn’t worth it anymore. The numbers are shocking: Inflation was 31% from 2014-2024 (that in itself is a problem…), but major fast food chains increased prices well above that figure. Taco Bell, for example, increased menu prices by 81% over this time period, and Popeyes increased prices by 86%. Topping the list is McDonald’s, which doubled its menu prices in the last ten years…

The Nasdaq is up nearly 20% YTD and 6% just this month, as its futures increase while Dow futures fall. The Dow lost about half a point in the past week, as of Monday. Chocolate prices remain very elevated, and over-speculation may now be contributing to the valuation. Bitcoin has been trending downward this week, settling around $65k as of Monday. There was some good news in the May inflation report, which showed flat month-to-month inflation in the CPI, though year-over-year inflation was still at 3.3%. Energy, in particular, dropped 0.2%, but was still up 4.7% YoY…

It’s well known that the once common Bible bookstore took a beating in the 2010s, with at least hundreds of brick and mortars closing – but suddenly, things don’t look so grim for the ones that are still standing. The Parable Group recently found that 79% of surveyed Christian stores experienced a rise in sales from 2022-2023. Sales rose 8%, to $84 million across 200 Christian bookstores, with gifts generating the most revenue, and adult books coming in at a close second…

Your weekly chance to test your Bible knowledge! The answer to today’s question may surprise you:

Q: Who is known as “The Weeping Prophet”?

Answer at the bottom

“ Jenny was initially appreciative about Todd trying to find a church for them to attend, until she discovered his criteria for choosing was the coffee shop reviews on Yelp.”

TIPS & TRICKS

Three Signs of a Healthy Church

Fish don’t know that they’re in water, as the saying goes, and when you’ve been inside a church or an organization for a long time, it can be difficult to see it objectively. As laypeople, we have a crucial role in the life of the church to help keep our corporate body accountable, healthy, and strong. Here are some key indicators of a healthy church, and some ideas on what to do if your community needs to make some reforms:

A Healthy Church Is Financially Prudent, Generous, and Transparent

A church isn’t a company selling a product, like Apple or Walmart. It is a body. Whether your church has formal membership or not, it is a voluntary association, and the people who participate have a right to know what’s going on with the finances. This certainly doesn’t mean that everyone has a key to the tithe box or a book of checks, but it does mean that the numbers are not a secret. A healthy church is open about its expenses, facilities costs, and other overhead, as well as missional giving, benevolence, and total revenue that comes in each year. Many faithful givers sacrifice greatly in order to support the local church, and that money needs to be apportioned wisely. Transparency helps ensure that frivolous or wasteful spending will not be the norm, and it increases trust between congregations and their leadership. Unfortunately, ecclesial theft, fraud, and outright foolish financial behavior is not uncommon, but the good news is that sunlight is the best disinfectant…

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• Influential evangelical megachurch pastor Tony Evans steps down, citing unnamed sin as reason.

• CNN releases a list of the top 10 “impossibly unaffordable” cities.

• The Economist gives Donald Trump a 2 in 3 chance of winning the presidency in November, according a new statistical forecast.

• Housing expert Kirsten Jordan warns that housing prices could fall 10% in some areas this summer.